Visiting Researcher
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- Jennifer Considine
- Primary Program Markets and Industrial Development
- Research Interests World oil and inventories, commodity trading and technology, Russian oil industry, econometrics options pricing, and commercial strategies.
Biography
Dr. Considine is a KAPSARC visiting researcher and a senior research fellow at the Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy (CEPMLP) in Dundee, Scotland. Previously, she led a number of projects involving options pricing, real options valuations of physical assets including electricity generation facilities, storage companies, and natural gas pipelines and contracts, risk management and hedging techniques, and trading strategies for a variety of commodities including natural gas, electricity and crude oil.
Dr. Considine has worked with a number of international energy companies including Ecopetrol, TransCanada Pipelines, Westcoast Energy, Coastal Corporation, Duke Energy, and ANR Pipeline Company. She is currently chief editor of Energy Politics, an energy newsletter dealing with commercial strategies and strategic planning in the global energy industry. Dr. Considine is a former member of the Board of Directors for Canada Post, and founding member of a number of initiatives to promote Scottish-Canadian relations including the Canadian Friends of Scotland.
Publications
See all Jennifer’s publications- Discussion papers
- Methodology papers
- Instant Insights
- KAPSARC journal articles
- External journal articles
Balancing World Oil Markets and Understanding Contango and Inventories: The Changing Nature of World Oil Markets
The general theory of storage suggests that the level of inventories is a key factor in determining the structure of the oil futures curve, or the basis, over time. The basis is the difference between the price of oil in the futures market and the price of oil in the spot market. As an indicator of future price movements, the basis follows a different dynamic when inventories are in scarce supply or in surplus. This means that there are several different market states that reflect different underlying crude oil market conditions.
6th July 2020
Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis
Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The basis also reflects broader underlying market conditions and can be useful to policymakers such as the International Energy Agency and OPEC attempting to monitor and stabilize world oil markets.
24th February 2020
Placing a Value on Spot Sales from a Joint Oil Stockpiling Facility
In this paper, joint oil stockpiling (JOS) refers to a commercial arrangement whereby crude oil, owned and commercially traded by an exporting country, is stored in an importing country in exchange for priority drawdown by the host country in the event of an emergency. It can thus be classified as both commercial and strategic storage (Doshi and Six 2017).
23rd January 2020
The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas
In recent years, global oil markets have experienced intensified competition driven by growing surpluses of lighter crude and shale oil. As their margins have shrunk, many producers have increased output in order to boost revenue, adding to the oversupply. Meanwhile, global market dynamics have been upended, with many predicting that the United States will become the primary swing supplier of crude oil (Morse 2018). This atmosphere is particularly challenging for those major oil companies subject to strict production quotas, as they seek to maximize profitability while maintaining constant levels of crude oil production and sales.
16th January 2020
Securing New Markets in Asia: The Value of Strategic Spot Crude Oil Sales to Teapot Refiners
In the race to secure customers on competitive world oil markets, many oil producers are looking to China as a promising source of increased market share. The task of securing new customers in China can be challenging, as most of China’s recent growth in oil demand has come from ‘teapot refiners’ who have been less predictable, and more like the ‘wild west,’ than China’s national oil companies. Teapot refiners tend to be more focused on short-term profits than long-term relationships.
18th December 2019
Global Crude Oil Storage Index: A New Benchmark for Energy Policy
The global oil market dwarfs other commodity markets. Its size and role in the energy and industrial value chains underscore its significant economic and geopolitical impacts. Thus, the consequences of oil price fluctuations extend far beyond the oil industry and can be viewed as a barometer of trends in the global economy. Several oil price benchmarks currently compete in the global market. The most popular ones, such as Brent or West Texas Intermediate (WTI), are backed by a sufficient supply of the underlying crude. They also meet the criteria for efficient trading, hedging and speculating — including having sufficient liquidity, developed futures markets, low transaction costs and strong institutional support.
13th September 2022
World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis
Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear to depend on market conditions at the time of forecast and the idiosyncratic nature of the shock (see Figure 1). This study develops a new analytical framework to analyze shocks to world oil markets. We build upon the global vector autoregression (GVAR) model developed in 2016 by Mohaddes and Pesaran to include a new variable, OECD oil inventories, creating the GVAR Oil and Inventory Model — GOVAR. We also expand its geographic coverage by adding two new countries, Russia and Venezuela.
10th June 2020
A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices
The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO) has been designed to provide readers with a timely source of data, forecasts and analysis of world oil markets, including an understanding of the key factors affecting world oil prices. This paper gives a detailed description of the scope of KOMO, including the models and methodology used in the analysis.
20th October 2019
Capturing the Value From Supply-Side Shocks in the Heavy Crude Market
The Russian-Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Russian crude oil flows have significantly affected world oil markets. Price volatility has increased, flows have been re-directed and there is considerable uncertainty concerning future energy policy. The implications of these changes affect all market segments including those where Russian supplies have been limited or absent. Thus, recent events have exacerbated problems observed in the already tight global heavy crude sector, where key exporters have been constrained either by sanctions (Iran and Venezuela) or by logistic bottlenecks (Canada).
29th January 2023
The G7 Pricing Scheme, an Exercise in Monopsony Power
High in the Bavarian Alps, at a special security session, G7 leaders set out to devise an ambitious plan to sanction Russian energy sales. The intent was to reduce Russian profits from oil and gas sales, while minimizing the damage to developed economies caused by rising fuel prices and inflation. The proposed solution, a ceiling on the price of oil and gas, is a new, untried method, which will be carefully constructed to allow oil to continue to flow to low- and middle-income countries, while limiting the economic benefit to Russia.
17th January 2023
The Effects of Russian Sanctions on the Global Economy
On February 24, 2022, Russia began a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, which quickly escalated into a militarized conflict across multiple fronts. The act drew immediate disapproval from the United Nations and led most members of the Western alliance to impose sanctions on Russia, which has had negative spillover effects on the world economy.
10th October 2022
Extreme Market Distortions Canadian Crude Oil Flows
With extensive natural resources and strategic access to both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, Canada has the potential to become a global energy powerhouse – provided that the nation is successful in alleviating its infrastructure bottlenecks. According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), Canada has the third-largest crude oil reserves in the world (EIA 2020).
27th December 2020
The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets
After decades of relatively smooth trade liberalization, a wave of protectionist measures and a global trade war is now threatening world trade. On September 1, 2019, the United States (U.S.) imposed a new series of tariffs on Chinese imports worth more than $100 billion.
4th December 2019
Unintended Transnational Effects of Sanctions: A Global Vector Autoregression Simulation
Taylor & Francis
2022
The Sensitivity of Oil Price Shocks to Preexisting Market Conditions: A GVAR Analysis
Science Direct
2021
Volatility, Contango, and Crude Oil Inventories: A Complex Relationship
Business School University of Colorado Denver
2021
The Demise of the Energy Marketing Industry: An Industry in Decline?
Oilweek, (Calgary: June Warren Publishing Ltd.)
2003
Real Options Valuation and Energy Markets
Risk Magazine (London: Risk Waters Group)
2003
Transformation and Reform in the Russian Energy Sector
Joint Project on Revitalizing Russian Industry, University of Calgary—Gorbachev Foundation Public Policy Project (UCGF’99)
2002
Oil and Gas in Central Asia and Northwest China
Book Review , The Energy Journal
2002
The Geopolitics of Energy into the 21st Century
Book Review, Geopolitics of Energy, (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)
2001
US Natural Gas
Oxford Energy Forum
2001
Vladimir Putin: The Man in the Iron Mask
Geopolitics of Energy (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)
2000
Yeltsin’s Legacy
Geopolitics of Energy (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)
2000
Russian Presidential Elections
Geopolitics of Energy (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)
1996
Battle for Market Share: World Oil Market Projections, 1995-2010
CERI Study No. 65 (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)
1995
Taxing the Difference: World Oil Market Projections, 1994-2009
CERI Study No. 59 (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)
1994
Containing Iraq: World Oil Market Projections, 1993-2008
CERI Study No. 51 (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)
1993
Russian Re-Centralization of Energy
Geopolitics of Energy (Washington: Conant and Associates)
1993
Oil in the Former Soviet Union: Historical Perspectives, Long-Term Outlook
CERI Study No. 48 (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)
1992
Challenging OPEC: World Oil Market Projections, 1992-2007
CERI Study No. 47 (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)
1992
A ‘New’ OPEC
Geopolitics of Energy
1992
After the Crisis: World Oil Market Projection s, 1991-2006
CERI Study No.39 (Calgary: Canadian Energy Research Institute)
1991
See all workshops
27 Feb
The Stability of World Oil Markets,…
The purpose of the workshop is to determine what the main market characteristics that determine the stability of world oil markets. Given four potential scenarios (quadrants) of relative change—rising storage levels, rapidly rising storage levels, falling storage levels, and rapidly falling storage levels.
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The workshop series “The Future of Mobility” provides a forum for discussing key sustainability issues in...
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